Risikovurderinger

Terrorangrebet 9/11 kostede omtrent 3,000 personer livet. I hvert fald hvis man ser direkte på selve angrebene. Efter angrebene blev mange folk bange for at flyve, men de ville stadig rejse, så de tog bilen i stedet for. Da biler er i retning af faktor 100 gange farligere form for transport (per afstand), så betød dette at noget i retning af 2,300 ekstra personer mistede livet (en anden forsker gætter på omtrent 1600). Menneskers risikovurderinger stemmer ikke altid så godt overens med hvad der egentligt er farligt.

Hvad med stater? Klarer de sig bedre? Af og til forekommer der en ekstrem situation hvor myndighederne overvejer og nogle gange vælger at tvangsevakuere befolkningen i et område. Hvis man tænker sig om et øjeblik, så kan man måske se hvordan dette kan godt galt. Uheldigvis har vi nogle faktiske tal.

Deaths related to Hurricane Rita and mass evacuation

A massive evacuation of more than 2.5 million people along the Texas gulf coast was initiated in preparation for Hurricane Rita in September 2005. The natural disaster narrowly missed major population centers causing 10 billion dollars in damage but with only a few direct deaths related to the hurricane. Most of the 111 deaths that occured were results of the evacuation process. …

There were 111 deaths related to Hurricane Rita in the state of Texas. The three direct deaths were from wind blown trees. A majority of the deaths (90/108 or 83.3%) were related to the mass evacuation process. Of these deaths, 10% were directly related to hyperthermia in motor vehicles. The combination of traffic gridlock and high temperatures, limitation of air conditioning to reduce fuel consumption, reduction of oral intake to decrease restroom visits, and conservation of limited supplies is suspected. 51.1% (46/90) of the evacuation deaths were persons found unresponsive in their vehicle. Hyperthermia and decompensated chronic health conditions are suspected but complete health information was not available. 25.5% (23/90) were nursing home evacuees who died in a bus fire that resulted from overheated brakes in combination with oxygen tanks. The evacuation of patients from chronic health facilities resulted in 10 deaths (11.1%).

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Disaster evacuation plans must be revised to prevent the unnecessary loss of lives.

Stress-induced deaths in Fukushima top those from 2011 natural disasters

The number of deaths in Fukushima Prefecture caused mainly by stress from the nuclear disaster reached 1,539 at the end of August, almost equaling the 1,599 fatalities due directly to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the Mainichi Shimbun has learned.

A Post Accident Safety Analysis Report of the Fukushima Accident — Future Direction of Evacuation: Lessons Learned


Due to the anticipated radiological consequences, the Japanese Government issued a series of evacuation orders, resulting in the evacuation of approximately 160,000 people from the Fukushima area. The prolonged evacuation is believed to be the cause of over one thousand “disaster-related (pre-mature) deaths (DRDs)” which have been reported among the evacuees due to psychosomatic effects (48%) and the disruption of medical and social welfare facilities (18%). In the future these types of deaths should be avoided.

WHO estimerer at man ikke vil kunne se nogle forøgede cancer-rater eller døde som effekt af strålingen. I øvrigt meget det samme som efter Tjernobyl. Det estimeres at der kommer en ~3% stigning i normale cancerformer, hvilket betyder at nogle dør nogle år før at de ville være døde af noget andet (relativ lav YPLL). Generelt er stråling noget folk har en temmelig forskruet holdning til, måske fordi det er usynligt.

Udgivet af

Emil

Forsker i psykologi, sociologi, lingvistik, statistik, m.fl. Stifter af Teknologipartiet og OpenPsych. Arbejder indenfor data science/biotech/web dev.