Risikovurderinger

Terrorangrebet 9/11 kostede omtrent 3,000 personer livet. I hvert fald hvis man ser direkte på selve angrebene. Efter angrebene blev mange folk bange for at flyve, men de ville stadig rejse, så de tog bilen i stedet for. Da biler er i retning af faktor 100 gange farligere form for transport (per afstand), så betød dette at noget i retning af 2,300 ekstra personer mistede livet (en anden forsker gætter på omtrent 1600). Menneskers risikovurderinger stemmer ikke altid så godt overens med hvad der egentligt er farligt.

Hvad med stater? Klarer de sig bedre? Af og til forekommer der en ekstrem situation hvor myndighederne overvejer og nogle gange vælger at tvangsevakuere befolkningen i et område. Hvis man tænker sig om et øjeblik, så kan man måske se hvordan dette kan godt galt. Uheldigvis har vi nogle faktiske tal.

Deaths related to Hurricane Rita and mass evacuation

A massive evacuation of more than 2.5 million people along the Texas gulf coast was initiated in preparation for Hurricane Rita in September 2005. The natural disaster narrowly missed major population centers causing 10 billion dollars in damage but with only a few direct deaths related to the hurricane. Most of the 111 deaths that occured were results of the evacuation process. …

There were 111 deaths related to Hurricane Rita in the state of Texas. The three direct deaths were from wind blown trees. A majority of the deaths (90/108 or 83.3%) were related to the mass evacuation process. Of these deaths, 10% were directly related to hyperthermia in motor vehicles. The combination of traffic gridlock and high temperatures, limitation of air conditioning to reduce fuel consumption, reduction of oral intake to decrease restroom visits, and conservation of limited supplies is suspected. 51.1% (46/90) of the evacuation deaths were persons found unresponsive in their vehicle. Hyperthermia and decompensated chronic health conditions are suspected but complete health information was not available. 25.5% (23/90) were nursing home evacuees who died in a bus fire that resulted from overheated brakes in combination with oxygen tanks. The evacuation of patients from chronic health facilities resulted in 10 deaths (11.1%).

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Disaster evacuation plans must be revised to prevent the unnecessary loss of lives.

Stress-induced deaths in Fukushima top those from 2011 natural disasters

The number of deaths in Fukushima Prefecture caused mainly by stress from the nuclear disaster reached 1,539 at the end of August, almost equaling the 1,599 fatalities due directly to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the Mainichi Shimbun has learned.

A Post Accident Safety Analysis Report of the Fukushima Accident — Future Direction of Evacuation: Lessons Learned


Due to the anticipated radiological consequences, the Japanese Government issued a series of evacuation orders, resulting in the evacuation of approximately 160,000 people from the Fukushima area. The prolonged evacuation is believed to be the cause of over one thousand “disaster-related (pre-mature) deaths (DRDs)” which have been reported among the evacuees due to psychosomatic effects (48%) and the disruption of medical and social welfare facilities (18%). In the future these types of deaths should be avoided.

WHO estimerer at man ikke vil kunne se nogle forøgede cancer-rater eller døde som effekt af strålingen. I øvrigt meget det samme som efter Tjernobyl. Det estimeres at der kommer en ~3% stigning i normale cancerformer, hvilket betyder at nogle dør nogle år før at de ville være døde af noget andet (relativ lav YPLL). Generelt er stråling noget folk har en temmelig forskruet holdning til, måske fordi det er usynligt.

Amerikansk skoleprojekt til 21 milliarder kroner havde ingen nævneværdig effekt

Vi har før skrevet kritiske indlæg om forsøg på at udligne sociale forskelle med investeringer i skoler m.v.  Der er nu udkommet et nyt stort offentligt amerikansk studie. Der er tale om den endelige vurdering af det såkaldte The School Improvement Grants program (SIG). Den endelige rapport er på 419 sider (download) og omtales i Washington Post. Nuvel er det bedre at læse den egentlige rapport end avisomtalerne, særligt hvis avisen har en kendt ideologisk vinkel (WP er konservativ). I kapitlet om effekterne kan man på side 60 læse:

There were no significant impacts of SIG-funded models on math or reading test scores, high school graduation, or college enrollment of students in schools at the SIG eligibility cutoff (Figure VI.1 shows results for 2012–2013; Appendix A, Figure A.1 shows results for earlier years [2010–2011 and 2011–2012]). For 2012–2013, the impact on math test scores was 0.01 standard deviations, the impact on reading test scores was 0.08 standard deviations, and the impact on high school graduation was -5 percentage points, but these impacts were not statistically significant. We were unable to calculate an impact on college enrollment for 2012– 2013 due to insufficient sample sizes, but we found no significant impacts on college enrollment for the other two school years (the impacts for 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 were -11 and 2 percentage points; see Appendix A for more details on this analysis).

Altså, skolerne som deltog i programmet producerede ikke elever med højere testscorer, eller havde højere gennemførselsrater eller endda optag på college/universitet senere. I nogle delgruppe-analyser fandt man små ændringer, men disse er statistisk tvivlsomme som rapporten også selv skriver. Og det er en temmelig ringe trøst når man har brugt knap 21 milliarder kroner på et stort projekt, at konklusionen er “det virker måske lidt for børn i 6-12. klasse men kun på 60 ud af 220 skoler”.

De overordnede resultater ser således ud:

SIG1 SIG2

Projektet er enormt, så manglen på observerbare effekter skyldes næppe at man ikke havde inkluderet nok personer (lav statistical power). I alt deltog 480 skoler (220 i forsøgsgruppen) fra 22 forskellige stater, og 60 forskellige skoledistrikter. Jeg kunne ikke finde et elevtal, men det må være mange tusind.